Abstract
We present a statistical method to reconstruct continuous atmospheric fields on various pressure levels, given a constraint at the surface. The method is based on analogues of circulation and taking into consideration the time sequence of the analogues. The method is tested on the 2001–2011 period, with an emphasis on the year 2010. We base the atmospheric reconstruction on reanalysis data from 1948 to 2000, and use a constraint of sea-level pressure for 2001–2011. The pattern correlation scores appear to be significant most of the time, although score flaws are occasionally detected. Those flaws are mainly due to the time continuity constraint that is imposed on the reconstruction, which lowers the possibility of finding matching analogues. This method offers an ensemble of atmospheric reconstructions, and presents a computationally cheap alternative to data assimilation for a climate model, although with lower scores.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ansell T, Jones P, Allan R, Lister D, Parker D, Brunet M, Moberg A, Jacobeit J, Brohan P, Rayner N, Aguilar E, Alexandersson H, Barriendos M, Brandsma T, Cox N, Della-Marta P, Drebs A, Founda D, Gerstengarbe F, Hickey K, Jonsson T, Luterbacher J, Nordli O, Oesterle H, Petrakis M, Philipp A, Rodwell M, Saladie O, Sigro J, Slonosky V, Srnec L, Swail V, Garcia-Suarez A, Tuomenvirta H, Wang X, Wanner H, Werner P, Wheeler D, Xoplaki E (2006) Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European-north Atlantic region for the period 1850–2003. J Clim 19(12):2717–2742
Cattiaux J, Vautard R, Cassou C, Yiou P, Masson-Delmotte V, Codron F (2010) Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate. Geophys Res Lett 37:L20704. doi:10.1029/2010GL044613
Chenet al, Fluteau F, Courtillot V (2005) Modelling massive sulphate aerosol pollution, following the large 1783 Laki basaltic eruption. Earth Planet Sci Lett 236(3–4):721–731
Compo G, Whitaker J, Sardeshmukh P, Matsui N, Allan R, Yin X, Gleason B, Vose R, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P, Brönnimann S, Brunet M, Crouthamel R, Grant A, Groisman P, Jones P, Kruk M, Kruger A, Marshall G, Maugeri M, Mok H, Nordli O, Ross T, Trigo R, Wang X, Woodruff S, Worley S (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:1–28
Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD (2006) Feasibility of a 100-year reanalysis using only surface pressure data. Bull Amer Met Soc 87(2):175–190
Fischer EM, Seneviratne SI, Lüthi D, Schär C (2007) Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves. Geophys Res Lett 34:L06707. doi:10.1029/2006GL029068
Ghil M, Allen M, Dettinger M, Ide K, Kondrashov D, Mann M, Robertson A, Saunders A, Tian Y, Varadi F, Yiou P (2002) Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev Geophys 40(1). doi:10.1029/2001RG000092
Gong DY, Drange H, Gao YQ (2007) Reconstruction of northern hemisphere 500hpa geopotential heights back to the late 19th century. Theoret Appl Climato l90(1–2):83–102
Haken H (1985) Order in chaos. Comput Meth Appl Mech Eng 52(1–3):635–652
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–471
Kimoto M, Ghil M (1993) Multiple flow regimes in the Northern-hemisphere winter. 1. Methodology and hemispheric regimes. J Atmos Sci 50(16):2625–2643
Kondrashov D, Ide K, Ghil M (2004) Weather regimes and preferred transition paths in a three-level quasigeostrophic model. J Atmos Sci 61(5):568–587
Lorenz EN (1969) Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J Atmos Sci 26(4):636–646
Luterbacher J, Rickli R, Tinguely C, Xoplaki E, Schupbach E, Dietrich D, Husler J, Ambuhl M, Pfister C, Beeli P, Dietrich U, Dannecker A, Davies T, Jones P, Slonosky V, Ogilvie A, Maheras P, Kolyva-Machera F, Martin-Vide J, Barriendos M, Alcoforado M, Nunes M, Jonsson T, Glaser R, Jacobeit J, Beck C, Philipp A, Beyer U, Kaas E, Schmith T, Barring L, Jonsson P, Racz L, Wanner H (2000) Monthly mean pressure reconstruction for the late maunder minimum period (AD 1675–1715). Int J Climatol 20(10):1049–1066
Mañé R (1981) On the dimension of the compact invariant sets of certain non-linear maps. In: Rand DA, Young L-S (eds) Dynamical systems and turbulence (Lecture Notes in Mathematics), vol 898. Springer, Berlin, pp 230–242
Michelangeli P, Vautard R, Legras B (1995) Weather regimes: recurrence and quasi-stationarity. J Atmos Sci 52(8):1237–1256
Schenk F, Zorita E (2012) Reconstruction of high resolution atmospheric fields for northern europe using analog-upscaling. Clim Past Discuss 8:819–868
Schmidt A, Ostro B, Carslawa K, Wilsona M, Thordarsond T, Manna G, Simmons A (2011) Excess mortality in europe following a future laki-style icelandic eruption. Proc Nat Acad Sci 108(38):15710–15715
Seneviratne SI, Luthi D, Litschi M, Schaer C (2006) Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443(7108):205–209
Takens F (1981) Detecting strange attractors in turbulence. In: Rand DA, Young L.-S (eds) Dynamical systems and turbulence (Lecture notes in mathematics), vol 898. Springer, Berlin, pp 366–381
Uppala SM, Kallberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, Bechtold VD, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, VanDe Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Holm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf JF, Morcrette JJ, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131(612):2961–3012
Vautard R, Yiou P (2009) Control of recent European surface climate change by atmospheric flow. Geophys Res Lett 36. doi:10.1029/2009GL040480
Vautard R, Yiou P, Ghil M (1992) Singular-spectrum analysis—a toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signals. Phys D 58(1–4):95–126
Vautard R, Yiou P, D’Andrea F, de Noblet N, Viovy N, Cassou C, Polcher J, Ciais P, Kageyama M, Fan Y (2007) Summertime European heat and drought waves induced by wintertime Mediterranean rainfall deficit. Geophys Res Lett 34:L07711. doi:10.1029/2006GL028001
Widmann M, Goosse H, van der Schrier G, Schnur R, Barkmeijer J (2010) Using data assimilation to study extratropical northern hemisphere climate over the last millennium. Clim Past 6(5):627–644
Yiou P, Vautard R, Naveau P, Cassou C (2007) Inconsistency between atmospheric dynamics and temperatures during the exceptional 2006/2007 fall/winter and recent warming in Europe. Geophys Res Lett 34:L21808. doi:10.1029/2007GL031981
Zampieri M, D’Andrea F, Vautard R, Ciais P, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Yiou P (2009) Hot European Summers and the role of soil moisture in the propagation of Mediterranean drought. J Clim 22:4747–4758
Zorita E, von Storch H (1999) The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique:comparison with more complicated methods. J Clim 12:2474–2489
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the French ANR CHEDAR project. PY acknowledges the hospitality of AORI (University of Tokyo), which helped developing some of the ideas of the manuscript. All computations were done with the R language. We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve significantly the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yiou, P., Salameh, T., Drobinski, P. et al. Ensemble reconstruction of the atmospheric column from surface pressure using analogues. Clim Dyn 41, 1333–1344 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1626-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1626-3