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Ground motion prediction in Beirut: a multi-step procedure coupling empirical Green’s functions, ground motion prediction equations and instrumental transfer functions

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Abstract

The strike slip Yammouneh fault is the longest fault in Lebanon, crossing the territory from South to North. It was responsible for major historical earthquakes like the 1202 A.D. earthquake, estimated to Ms7.6. This paper presents a site-specific estimation of the ground motion caused by a potential Mw7.5 earthquake on the Yammouneh fault, similar to the 1202 event, for various sites within the Beirut area. The empirical Green’s function technique EGF is used to estimate the median and the standard deviations of the seismic ground motion at the reference station BHL, taking into account epistemic and aleatory uncertainties related to source parameters. These uncertainties were quantified through a sensitivity analysis of the position of the rupture nucleation Xnuc, the slip roughness parameter K, the corner frequency fc and the magnitude Mc of the EGF. The rock ground motion is then transferred to various other sites within the Beirut area, using instrumental Fourier transfer functions. Site amplification factors are next deduced by computing the ratio between response spectra at sediment sites and at a reference rock station. Considering the limits of the EGF method in the near field of extended sources, the EGF approach is considered only up to a magnitude Mw of 6.5. Selected Ground Motion Predictive Equations are then used to simulate a Mw7.5 event at a reference station. By applying the amplification factors, the response spectra at the different sites of Beirut are also calculated and compared with the actual response spectra used in the Lebanese regulations.

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Acknowledgments

We gratefully acknowledge the General Secretary of the Lebanese National Council for Scientific Research (CNRSL) M. Hamzé, the director of the geophysical research center (CRG-CNRSL) A. Sursock and all the team of the CRG especially R. Jomaa for their invaluable support. We wish to thank F. Cotton and S. Drouet for the advice and help in choosing the adequate GMPEs for the Lebanese context. This research has been funded by the Lebanese National Council for Scientific Research CNRSL, by Institut de la Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) and by Agence française pour la promotion de l’enseignement supérieur, l’accueil et la mobilité international (Campus France, Beyrouth). We thank G. Cultrera and two anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions helped improve and clarify this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Council for Scientific Research, CNRS, P.O. Box: 16-5432, Achrafieh, Beirut, 1100-2040, Lebanon

    Marleine Brax

  2. ISTerre, Université Grenoble Alpes, IFSTTAR, CNRS, IRD, F-38000, Grenoble, France

    Mathieu Causse & Pierre-Yves Bard

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  1. Marleine Brax
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Correspondence to Marleine Brax.

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Brax, M., Causse, M. & Bard, PY. Ground motion prediction in Beirut: a multi-step procedure coupling empirical Green’s functions, ground motion prediction equations and instrumental transfer functions. Bull Earthquake Eng 14, 3317–3341 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-0004-7

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