Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

High-resolution subtropical summer precipitation derived from dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/DOE reanalysis: how much small-scale information is added by a regional model?

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study assesses the regional-scale summer precipitation produced by the dynamical downscaling of analyzed large-scale fields. The main goal of this study is to investigate how much the regional model adds smaller scale precipitation information that the large-scale fields do not resolve. The modeling region for this study covers the southeastern United States (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) where the summer climate is subtropical in nature, with a heavy influence of regional-scale convection. The coarse resolution (2.5° latitude/longitude) large-scale atmospheric variables from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/DOE reanalysis (R2) are downscaled using the NCEP/Environmental Climate Prediction Center regional spectral model (RSM) to produce precipitation at 20 km resolution for 16 summer seasons (1990–2005). The RSM produces realistic details in the regional summer precipitation at 20 km resolution. Compared to R2, the RSM-produced monthly precipitation shows better agreement with observations. There is a reduced wet bias and a more realistic spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology compared with the interpolated R2 values. The root mean square errors of the monthly R2 precipitation are reduced over 93% (1,697) of all the grid points in the five states (1,821). The temporal correlation also improves over 92% (1,675) of all grid points such that the domain-averaged correlation increases from 0.38 (R2) to 0.55 (RSM). The RSM accurately reproduces the first two observed eigenmodes, compared with the R2 product for which the second mode is not properly reproduced. The spatial patterns for wet versus dry summer years are also successfully simulated in RSM. For shorter time scales, the RSM resolves heavy rainfall events and their frequency better than R2. Correlation and categorical classification (above/near/below average) for the monthly frequency of heavy precipitation days is also significantly improved by the RSM.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson CJ et al (2003) Hydrological processes in regional climate model simulations of the central United States flood of June–July 1993. J Hydrometeorol 4:584–598

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baigorria GA, Hansen JW, Ward N, Jones JW, O’Brien JJ (2008) Assessing predictability of cotton yields in the southeastern United States based on regional atmospheric circulation and surface temperatures. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47:76–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnston AG (1992) Correspondence among the correlation, RMSE, and Heidke forecast verification measures: refinement of the Heidke score. Weather Forecast 7:699–709

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castro CL, Pielke RA Sr, Leoncini G (2005) Dynamical downscaling: assessment of value retained and added using the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS). J Geophys Res 110:D05108. doi:10.1029/2004JD004721

  • Castro CL, Pielke RA Sr, Adegoke JO (2007) Investigation of the summer climate of the contiguous U.S. and Mexico using the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS). Part I: model climatology (1950–2002). J Clim 20:3844–4865

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen F et al (1996) Modeling of land surface evaporation by four schemes and comparison with FIFE observations. J Geophys Res 101:7251–7268

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chou MD, Lee KT (1996) Parameterizations for the absorption of solar radiation by water vapor and ozone. J Atmos Sci 53:1203–1208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cressman GP (1959) An operational objective analysis system. Mon Weather Rev 87:367–374

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diaconescu EM, Laprise R, Sushama L (2007) The impact of lateral boundary data errors on the simulated climate of a nested regional climate model. Clim Dyn 28(4). doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0189-6

  • Dickinson RE, Erroco RM, Giorgi F, Bates T (1989) A regional climate model for the western United States. Clim Change 15:383–422

    Google Scholar 

  • Fennessy MJ, Shukla J (2000) Seasonal prediction over North America with a regional model nested in a global model. J Clim 13:2605–2627

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fiorino M (2004) A multi-decadal daily sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration data set for the ERA-40 reanalysis. ECMWF ERA-40 Project Rep. Series 12, 16 pp

  • Fu C, Wang S, Xiong Z, Gutowski WJ, Lee DK, McGregor JL, Sato Y, Kato H, Kim JW, Suh MS (2005) Regional climate model intercomparison project for Asia. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 86:257–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F (1990) Simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model. J Clim 3:941–963

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Bates GT, Nieman SJ (1992) Simulation of the arid climate of the southern Great Basin using a regional climate model. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 73:1807–1822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han J, Pan HL (2006) Sensitivity of hurricane intensity forecast to convective momentum transport parameterization. Mon Weather Rev 134:664–674

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heidke P (1926) Berechnung des Erfolges und der Gute der Windstarkevorhersagen im Sturmwarnungsdienst. Geografts Ann 8:301–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Higgins RW, Yao Y, Wang XL (1997) Influence of the North American monsoon system on the U.S. summer precipitation regime. J Clim 10:2600–2622

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Higgins RW, Silva V, Larson J, Shi W (2007) Relationship between climate variability and fluctuations in daily precipitation over the United States. J Clim 15:3561–3579

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hong SY, Pan HL (1996) Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Mon Weather Rev 124:2322–2339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hong SY, Dudhia J, Chen SH (2004) A revised approach to ice-microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of cloud and precipitation. Mon Weather Rev 132:103–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins GS (1997) The 1988 and 1990 summer season simulations for West Africa using a regional climate model. J Clim 10:1255–1272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (2003) Forecast verification: a practitioner’s guide in atmospheric science. Wiley, Hoboken, 240 pp

  • Juang HMH, Hong SY (2001) Sensitivity of the NCEP regional spectral model to domain size and nesting strategy. Mon Weather Rev 129:2904–2922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Juang HMH, Kanamitsu M (1994) The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon Weather Rev 122:3–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Juang HMH, Hong SY, Kanamitsu M (1997) The NCEP regional spectral model: an update. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2125–2143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Kanamaru H (2007) Fifty-seven-year California reanalysis downscaling at 10 km (CaRD10). Part I: system detail and validation with observation. J Clim 20:5553–5571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang SK, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Kanamaru H, Cui Y, Juang H (2005) Parallel implementation of the regional spectral atmospheric model. PIER Project Rep. CEC-500-2005-014, 23 pp. http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/documents/pier_gcc_reports.html

  • Kunkel KE, Andsager K, Liang XZ, Arritt RW, Takle ES, Gutowski WJ Jr, Pan Z (2002) Observations and regional climate model simulations of heavy precipitation events and seasonal anomalies: a comparison. J Hydrometeorol 3:322–334

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang XZ, Li L, Kunkel KE, Ting M, Wang JXL (2004) Regional climate model simulation of U.S. precipitation during 1982–2002. Part I: annual cycle. J Clim 17:3510–3529

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lim YK, Cocke S, Shin DW, Schoof JT, LaRow TE, O’Brien JJ (2009) Downscaling large-scale NCEP CFS to resolve fine-scale seasonal precipitation and extremes for the crop growing seasons over the southeastern United States. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0671-z

  • Liu Y, Giorgi F, Washington WM (1994) Simulation of summer monsoon climate over East Asia with an NCAR regional climate model. Mon Weather Rev 122:2331–2348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mearns LO, Giorgi F, McDaniel L, Shields C (2003) Climate scenarios for the southeastern U.S. based on GCM and regional model simulations. Clim Change 60(1–2). doi:10.1023/A:1026033732707

  • Mearns LO, Gutowski W, Jones R, Leung R, McGinnis S, Nunes A, Qian Y (2009) A regional climate change assessment program for North America. EOS, Trans Am Geophys Union 90:311. doi:10.1029/2009EO360002

  • Mesinger F et al (2006) North American regional reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:343–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moorthi S, Suarez MJ (1992) Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert: a parameterization of moist convection for general circulation models. Mon Weather Rev 120:978–1002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mullen SL, Buizza R (2001) Quantitative precipitation forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon Weather Rev 129:638–663

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pan Z, Christensen JH, Aritt RW, Gutowski WJ Jr, Takle ES, Otieno F (2001) Evaluation of uncertainties in regional climate change simulations. J Geophys Res 106:17735–17751

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roads J, Chen SC, Kanamitsu M (2003) U.S. regional climate simulations and seasonal forecasts. J Geophys Res 108:8606. doi:10.1029/2002JD002232

    Google Scholar 

  • Robertson AW, Ines AVM, Hansen JW (2007) Downscaling of seasonal precipitation for crop simulation. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 46:677–693

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rockel B, Castro CL, Pielke Sr RA, von Storch H, Leoncini G (2008) Dynamical downscaling: assessment of model system dependent retained and added variability for two different regional climate models. J Geophys Res 113:D21107. doi:10.1029/2007JD009461

  • Rossa A, Nurmi P, Ebert E (2008) Overview of methods for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts. In: Precipitation: advances in measurement, estimation and prediction. Springer, Berlin, pp 419–452. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-77655-0_16

  • Seo H, Miller AJ, Roads JO (2007) The Scripps coupled ocean-atmosphere regional (SCOAR) model, with applications in the eastern Pacific sector. J Clim 20:381–402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Slingo JM (1987) The development and verification of a cloud prediction model for the ECMWF model. Q J R Meteorol Soc 113:899–927

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takle ES et al (1999) Project to intercompare regional climate simulations (PIRCS): description and initial results. J Geophys Res 104(D16):19443–19461

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Williamson D, Zwiers F (2000) The sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration boundary conditions of AMIP II simulations. PCMDI Rep. 60, 20 pp

  • Tiedtke M (1993) Representation of clouds in large-scale models. Mon Weather Rev 121:3040–3061

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • von Storch H, Langenberg H, Feser F (2000) A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes. Mon Weather Rev 128:3664–3673

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu W, Lynch AH, Rivers A (2005) Estimating the uncertainties in a regional climate model related to initial and lateral boundary conditions. J Clim 18:917–933

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao QY, Carr FH (1997) A prognostic cloud scheme for operational NWP models. Mon Weather Rev 125:1931–1953

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu J, Liang XZ (2007) Regional climate model simulations of U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature during 1982–2002: interannual variation. J Clim 20:218–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32306-2840, USA

    Young-Kwon Lim, Lydia B. Stefanova & Steven C. Chan

  2. Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA / Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA

    Young-Kwon Lim & Siegfried D. Schubert

  3. Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32306-2840, USA

    James J. O’Brien

Authors
  1. Young-Kwon Lim
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Lydia B. Stefanova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Steven C. Chan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Siegfried D. Schubert
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. James J. O’Brien
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Young-Kwon Lim.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lim, YK., Stefanova, L.B., Chan, S.C. et al. High-resolution subtropical summer precipitation derived from dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/DOE reanalysis: how much small-scale information is added by a regional model?. Clim Dyn 37, 1061–1080 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0891-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0891-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation