Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Projected climate change scenario over California by a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model system

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study examines a future climate change scenario over California in a 10-km coupled regional downscaling system of the Regional Spectral Model for the atmosphere and the Regional Ocean Modeling System for the ocean forced by the global Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3). In summer, the coupled and uncoupled downscaled experiments capture the warming trend of surface air temperature, consistent with the driving CCSM3 forcing. However, the surface warming change along the California coast is weaker in the coupled downscaled experiment than it is in the uncoupled downscaling. Atmospheric cooling due to upwelling along the coast commonly appears in both the present and future climates, but the effect of upwelling is not fully compensated for by the projected large-scale warming in the coupled downscaling experiment. The projected change of extreme warm events is quite different between the coupled and uncoupled downscaling experiments, with the former projecting a more moderate change. The projected future change in precipitation is not significantly different between coupled and uncoupled downscaling. Both the coupled and uncoupled downscaling integrations predict increased onshore sea breeze change in summer daytime and reduced offshore land breeze change in summer nighttime along the coast from the Bay area to Point Conception. Compared to the simulation of present climate, the coupled and uncoupled downscaling experiments predict 17.5 % and 27.5 % fewer Catalina eddy hours in future climate respectively.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Brands S, Taboada JJ, Cofino AS, Sauter T, Schneider C (2011) Statistical downscaling of daily temperature in the NW Iberian Peninsular from global climate models: validation and future scenarios. Clim Res 48:163–176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diaz-Nieto J, Wilby RL (2005) A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom. Climatic Change 69:245–268

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dodge Y (2013) The Oxford dictionary of statistics terms, OUP. ISBN 0-19-920613-9

  • Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bulletin 58(3):175–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Climate 19:5686–5699

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ho C, Park T, Jun S, Lee M, Park C, Kim J, Lee S, Hong Y, Song C, Lee J (2011) A projection of extreme climate events in the 21st century over East Asia using the community climate system model 3. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 47(4):329–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hong SY, Moon NK, Lim KSS, Kim JW (2010) Future climate change scenarios over Korea using a multi-nested downscaling system: a pilot study. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 46(4):425–435

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurkmans R, Terink W, Uijlenhoet R, Torfs P (2010) Changes in streamflow dynamics in the Rhine basin under three high-resolution regional climate scenarios. J Climate 23:679–699

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Juang HMH, Kanamitsu M (1994) The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon Wea Rev 122:3–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Juang HMH, Hong SY, Kanamitsu M (1997) The NCEP regional spectral model: an update. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 78:2125–2143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Kanamaru H (2007) Fifty-Seven-Year California reanalysis downscaling at 10 km (CaRD10). Part I: system detail and validation with observations. J Clim 20:5553–5571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Yoshimura K, Yhang Y, Hong S (2010) Errors of interannual variability and multi-decadal trend in dynamical regional climate downscaling and its corrections. J Geophys Res 115, D17115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Yulaeva E, Li H, Hong SY (2013) Catalina eddy as revealed by the historical downscaling of reanalysis. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 49(4). doi:10.1007/s13143-013-0042-x

  • Koenigk T, Doscher R, Nikulin G (2011) Arctic future scenario experiments with a coupled regional climate model. Tellas 63A:69–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li H, Kanamitsu M, Hong SY (2012) California reanalysis downscaling at 10 km using an ocean–atmosphere coupled regional model system. J Geophys Res 117, D12118. doi:10.1029/2011JD017372

    Google Scholar 

  • Li H, Kanamitsu M, Hong SY, Yoshimura K, Cayan DR, Misra V (2013) A high-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled downscaling of a present climate over California. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1670-7

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodgers JL, Nicewander WA (1988) Thirteen ways to look at the correlation coefficient. Am Stat 42(1):59–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shchepetkin AF, McWilliams JC (2005) The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate ocean model. Ocean Model 9:347–404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stigler SM (1989) Francis Galton’s account of the invention of correlation. Stat Sci 4(2):73–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun F, Roderick ML, Lim WH, Farquhar GD (2011) Hydroclimatic projections for the Murray-Darling Basin based on an ensemble derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate models. Water Resour Res 47: W00G02, doi:10.1029/2010WR009829

  • Timbal B, Dufour A, McAvancey B (2003) An estimate of future climate change for western France using a statistical downscaling technique. Clim Dyn 20:807–823

    Google Scholar 

  • Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J Climate 20:4316–4340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yoshimura K, Kanamitsu M (2009) Specification of external forcing for regional model integrations. Mon Wea Rev 137:1409–1421

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao Z, Chen SH, Kleeman MJ, Mahmud A (2011) The impacts of climate change on air quality-related meteorological conditions in California. Part II: present versus future time simulation analysis. J Climate 24:3362–3376

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by grants from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (ECPC: NA17RJ1231, NA12OAR4310078, NA10OAR4310215, NA11OAR4310110), the California Energy Commission PIER Program, U.S. Geological Survey (06HQGR0125), and U.S. Department of Agriculture (027865). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of funding agencies. Supercomputing resources were provided by the Center for Observations, Modeling and Prediction at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and TACC via Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment. The help of Kathy Fearon in refining our text is appreciated. Three anonymous reviewers helped to improve the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA

    Haiqin Li & Vasubandhu Misra

  2. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA

    Masao Kanamitsu & Daniel R. Cayan

  3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea

    Song-You Hong

  4. Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan

    Kei Yoshimura

  5. Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites – North Carolina, Asheville, NC, USA

    Liqiang Sun

Authors
  1. Haiqin Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Masao Kanamitsu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Song-You Hong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Kei Yoshimura
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Daniel R. Cayan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Vasubandhu Misra
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Liqiang Sun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Haiqin Li.

Additional information

Masao Kanamitsu is deceased

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Li, H., Kanamitsu, M., Hong, SY. et al. Projected climate change scenario over California by a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model system. Climatic Change 122, 609–619 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1025-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1025-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation