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Representing rainfall extremes over the Indo-Gangetic Plains using CORDEX-CORE simulations

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Abstract

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), which is the site of India's Green Revolution, covers almost 15% of the country's landmass and is among the most extensively fertile lands across the world. The densely populated IGP region bears great importance for the socioeconomic facets of India and contributes to a major share of the GDP of the country. The present study demonstrates the regional-specific assessment of summer monsoon precipitation and associated extremes with dynamical and thermodynamical aspects over the IGP region using high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) under the CORDEX-CORE framework. The analysis reveals that the eastern parts of the IGP receive low-to-moderate precipitation with a higher tail than the western parts, which is due to the direction of the monsoon low-level flow. The observed mean precipitation characteristics are well represented by the RCMs. Further, the research identifies extreme precipitation events over the IGP and conducts comprehensive analysis to understand their underlying mechanisms. It has been observed that extreme precipitation events are linked with the moisture transport associated with trough activity and instability, and RCMs are capable in representing the observed precipitation extremes and underlying mechanisms at localized scales. Overall, this study represents a significant step forward in understanding the evolution of spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over the IGP region, where agriculture is a major economic activity and millions of people depend on rainfed agriculture.

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Data availability statement

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The present study forms a component of MP’s doctoral dissertation and has received support from a R&D project funded by the DST, Govt. of India. The authors wish to extend their appreciation to the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions, which greatly improved the quality of this manuscript. RB also acknowledges the IOE grant under Dev. Scheme 6031(A). The authors would like to express their gratitude to the WCRP community for initiating the CORDEX project. Authors are also thankful to the IMD, ECMWF and GERICS for providing the data utilized in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geophysics, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    Manas Pant & R. Bhatla

  2. DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India

    Manas Pant, R. K. Mall & R. Bhatla

  3. Institute of Environmental Geosciences (IGE), Grenoble Alpes University (UGA), Grenoble, France

    Namendra Kumar Shahi

  4. Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany

    Armelle Reca Remedio

  5. K. Banerjeec Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, India

    Shailendra Rai

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  2. Namendra Kumar Shahi
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  3. Armelle Reca Remedio
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  4. R. K. Mall
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  5. Shailendra Rai
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  6. R. Bhatla
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Contributions

This paper is conceptualized by MP, NKS and RB which is further designed by MP and NKS. Authors MP, NKS and RB further developed the research plan. AR provided the REMO simulated data sets. MP and NKS did the data processing and the analyses under the guidance of RB and AR. MP wrote the first draft, which was subsequently modified by NKS and AR. RB, RKM and SS supervised the research work. The manuscript has been thoroughly reviewed by all the authors, who have contributed their expertise to enhance the quality of the work and have given their approval by accepting the authors' agreement.

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Correspondence to R. Bhatla.

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Pant, M., Shahi, N.K., Remedio, A.R. et al. Representing rainfall extremes over the Indo-Gangetic Plains using CORDEX-CORE simulations. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07095-w

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