Abstract
We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China.
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Acknowledgments
This study is supported by the National Science Foundation of China (Project Nos. 41571088, 31561143003 and 41571493), partly supported by the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry via FACCE-MACSUR and by Luke via the strategic MODAGS project. We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for providing highly valuable comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript.
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10113_2015_920_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
Fig.S1. Anomalies of wheat yield (A, E), mean temperature (B, F), precipitation (C, G) and solar radiation (D, H) in the five lowest yielding years (A, B, C, D) and the five highest yielding years (E, F, G, H) during 1980-2008 (PDF 5251 kb)
10113_2015_920_MOESM2_ESM.pdf
Fig.S2. Anomalies of maize yield (A, E), mean temperature (B, F), precipitation (C, G) and solar radiation (D, H) in the five lowest yielding years (A, B, C, D) and the five highest yielding years (E, F, G, H) during 1980-2008 (PDF 5243 kb)
10113_2015_920_MOESM3_ESM.pdf
Fig.S3. Anomalies of soybean yield (A, E), mean temperature (B, F), precipitation (C, G) and solar radiation (D, H) in the five lowest yielding years (A, B, C, D) and the five highest yielding years (E, F, G, H) during 1980-2008 (PDF 5132 kb)
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Tao, F., Zhang, Z., Zhang, S. et al. Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades. Reg Environ Change 16, 1715–1723 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0920-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0920-0