Abstract
Historical land use may shape landscapes for centuries into the future, but it remains unclear how much land-use legacies affect contemporary land use. Knowing for how long and how strongly land-use legacies affect agricultural systems is important for contemporary land-use planning and conservation. We assessed the effect of nineteenth-century agricultural legacies for contemporary agricultural abandonment by integrating historic maps and satellite imagery in the Carpathian region. We modeled the choice of agricultural land, and the legacies of Habsburg and Socialist regimes, while controlling for agro-ecological, accessibility and sociopolitical variation. Farming during the Habsburg era was concentrated in agro-ecologically suitable areas, but socialist agricultural expansion occurred mostly in less suitable areas, leading to subsequent abandonment. In addition, our results showed that historic land use affected abandonment even 100 years later. Although legacies diminished over time, their effects were amplified when political transformations occurred, likely due to land tenure systems, land owner attitudes, cultural values and differences in land improvement over time. Taken together, land-use legacies and shifts in political systems can constrain current land management and possible future land-use options, suggesting that contemporary land-use decisions can affect future land use for decades and even centuries.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdulai A, Owusu V, Goetz R (2011) Land tenure differences and investment in land improvement measures: theoretical and empirical analyses. J Dev Econ 96:66–78. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.08.002
Alcantara C, Kuemmerle T, Baumann M, Bragina EV, Griffiths P, Hostert P, Knorn J, Müller D, Prishchepov AV, Schierhorn F, Sieber A, Radeloff VC (2013) Mapping the extent of abandoned farmland in Central and Eastern Europe using MODIS time series satellite data. Environ Res Lett 8:035035. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/0350359
Alix-Garcia J, Walker S, Radeloff VC, Kozak J (2016) Tariffs and trees: the effects of the Austro-Hungarian customs union on specialization and land use change. http://www.aae.wisc.edu/alixgarcia/. Accessed May 2016 (working paper)
Ban C (2012) Sovereign debt, austerity, and regime change: the case of Nicolae Ceausescu’s Romania. East Eur Polit Soc 26:743–776. doi:10.1177/0888325412465513
Baumann M, Kuemmerle T, Elbakidze M, Ozdogan M, Radeloff VC, Keuler NS, Prishchepov AV, Kruhlov I, Hostert P (2011) Patterns and drivers of post-socialist farmland abandonment in Western Ukraine. Land Use Policy 28:552–562. doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2010.11.003
Berger S (ed) (2006) A companion to nineteenth-century Europe: 1789–1914. Blackwell Publishing, Malden, Oxford, Carlton
Bezák P, Mitchley J (2014) Drivers of change in mountain farming in Slovakia: from socialist collectivisation to the Common Agricultural Policy. Reg Environ Change 14:1343–1356. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0580-x
Bičík I, Jeleček L, Štepánek V (2001) Land-use changes and their social driving forces in Czechia in the 19th and 20th centuries. Land Use Policy 18:65–73
Börjeson L (2007) Boserup backwards? Agricultural intensification as “its own driving force” in the Mbulu Highlands, Tanzania. Geogr Ann Ser B Hum Geogr 89:249–267. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0467.2007.00252.x
Brain S (2010) The great Stalin plan for the transformation of nature. Environ Hist 15:670–700. doi:10.1093/envhis/emq091
Brierley GJ (2010) Landscape memory: the imprint of the past on contemporary landscape forms and processes. Area 42:76–85. doi:10.1111/j.1475-4762.2009.00900.x
Brudvig LA, Grman E, Habeck CW, Orrock JL, Ledvina JA (2013) Strong legacy of agricultural land use on soils and understory plant communities in longleaf pine woodlands. For Ecol Manage 310:944–955. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2013.09.053
CIESIN (Center for International Earth Science Information Network), FAO (United Nations Food and Agriculture Programme), CIAT (Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical) (2005) Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3): Population Count Grid
CIESIN (Center for International Earth Science Information Network), ITOS (Information Technology Outreach Services) (2013) Global Roads Open Access Data Set, Version 1 (gROADSv1)
Coomes OT, Takasaki Y, Rhemtulla JM (2011) Land-use poverty traps identified in shifting cultivation systems shape long-term tropical forest cover. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108:13925–13930. doi:10.1073/pnas.1012973108
Curran PJ (1988) The semivariogram in remote sensing: an introduction. Remote Sens Environ 24:493–507. doi:10.1016/0034-4257(88)90021-1
DeFries RS, Foley JA, Asner GP (2004) Land-use choices: balancing human needs and ecosystem function in a nutshell. Front Ecol 2:249–257
Dullinger S, Essl F, Rabitsch W, Erb K-H, Gingrich S, Haberl H, Hülber K, Jarosík V, Krausmann F, Kühn I, Pergl J, Pysek P, Hulme PE (2013) Europe’s other debt crisis caused by the long legacy of future extinctions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110:7342–7347. doi:10.1073/pnas.1216303110
ESRI (2008) ESRI ® Data & Maps 9.3. New York
Essl F, Dullinger S, Rabitsch W, Hulme PE, Pyšek P, Wilson JRU, Richardson DM (2015) Historical legacies accumulate to shape future biodiversity in an era of rapid global change. Divers Distrib 21:534–547. doi:10.1111/ddi.12312
Estel S, Kuemmerle T, Alcántara C, Levers C, Prishchepov A, Hostert P (2015) Mapping farmland abandonment and recultivation across Europe using MODIS NDVI time series. Remote Sens Environ 163:312–325. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.03.028
European Environment Agency (2013) Corine Land Cover 2006 seamless vector data. http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/clc-2006-vector-data-version-3. Accessed 1 Jan 2014
Farr TG, Rosen PA, Caro E, Crippen R, Duren R, Hensley S, Kobrick M, Paller M, Rodriguez E, Roth L, Seal D, Shaffer S, Shimada J, Umland J, Werner M, Oskin M, Burbank D, Alsdorf D (2007) The shuttle radar topography mission. Rev Geophys 45:RG2004. doi:10.1029/2005RG000183
Ficetola GF, Maiorano L, Fallucci A, Dendoncker N, Boitani L, Padoa-Schioppa E, Miaud C, Thullier W (2010) Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs. Glob Change Biol 16:528–537. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01957.x
Foley JA, Ramankutty N, Brauman KA, Cassidy ES, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Mueller ND, O’Connell C, Ray DK, West PC, Balzer C, Bennett EM, Carpenter SR, Hill J, Monfreda C, Polasky S, Rockström J, Sheehan J, Siebert S, Tilman D, Zaks DPM (2011) Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478:337–342. doi:10.1038/nature10452
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (2014) Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ v. 3.0). http://gaez.fao.org/Main.html.. Accessed Jan 2014
Foster DR, Swanson FJ, Aber J, Burke I, Brokaw N, Tilman D, Knapp A (2003) The importance of land-use legacies to ecology and conservation. Bioscience 53:77–88
Fuchs R, Herold M, Verburg PH, Clevers JGPW, Eberle J (2015) Gross changes in reconstructions of historic land cover/use for Europe between 1900 and 2010. Glob Change Biol 21:299–313. doi:10.1111/gcb.12714
Gallego J, Delincé J (2010) The European land use and cover area-frame statistical survey. In: Benedetti R, Bee M, Espa G, Piersimoni F (eds) Agricultural survey methods. Wiley, New York, pp 151–168
Geist HJ, Lambin EF (2002) Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation. Bioscience 52:143
Gerard F, Petit S, Smith G, Thomson A, Brown N, Manchester S, Wadsworth R, Bugár G, Halada L, Bezak P, Boltižiar M, De Badts E, Halabuk A, Mojses M, Petrovič F, Gregor M, Hazeu G, Mucher CA, Wachowicz M, Huitu H, Tuominen S, Kohler R, Olschofsky K, Ziese H, Kolar J, Sustera J, Luque S, Pino J, Pons X, Roda F, Roscher M, Feranec J (2010) Land cover change in Europe between 1950 and 2000 determined employing aerial photography. Prog Phys Geogr 34:183–205. doi:10.1177/0309133309360141
Good DF (1984) The economic rise of the Habsburg Empire, 1750–1914. University of California Press, Berkley and Los Angeles
Griffith DA (2003) Spatial autocorrelation and spatial filtering: gaining understanding through theory and scientific visualization. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Griffiths P, Müller D, Kuemmerle T, Hostert P (2013) Agricultural land change in the Carpathian ecoregion after the breakdown of socialism and expansion of the European Union. Environ Res Lett 8:045024. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045024
Hartvigsen M (2014) Land reform and land fragmentation in Central and Eastern Europe. Land Use Policy 36:330–341
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965–1978. doi:10.1002/joc.1276
Hosmer DW, Lemesbow S (1980) Goodness of fit tests for the multiple logistic regression model. Commun Stat - Theor Methods 9:1043–1069. doi:10.1080/03610928008827941
Hosmer DW Jr, Lemeshow S, Sturdivant RX (2013) Applied logistic regression. Wiley, New York
Hurtt GC, Frolking S, Fearon MG, Moore B, Shevliakova E, Malyshev S, Pacala SW, Houghton RA (2006) The underpinnings of land-use history: three centuries of global gridded land-use transitions, wood-harvest activity, and resulting secondary lands. Glob Change Biol 12:1208–1229. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01150.x
Jepsen MR, Kuemmerle T, Müller D, Erb K, Verburg PH, Haberl H, Vesterager JP, Andrič M, Antrop M, Austrheim G, Björn I, Bondeau A, Bürgi M, Bryson J, Caspar G, Cassar LF, Conrad E, Chromý P, Daugirdas V, Van Eetvelde V, Elena-Rosselló R, Gimmi U, Izakovicova Z, Jančák V, Jansson U, Kladnik D, Kozak J, Konkoly-Gyuró E, Krausmann F, Mander Ü, McDonagh J, Pärn J, Niedertscheider M, Nikodemus O, Ostapowicz K, Pérez-Soba M, Pinto-Correia T, Ribokas G, Rounsevell M, Schistou D, Schmit C, Terkenli TS, Tretvik AM, Trzepacz P, Vadineanu A, Walz A, Zhllima E, Reenberg A (2015) Transitions in European land-management regimes between 1800 and 2010. Land Use Policy 49:53–64. doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.07.003
Kaim D, Kozak J, Ostafin K, Dobosz M, Ostapowicz K, Kolecka N, Gimmi U (2014) Uncertainty in historical land-use reconstructions with topographic maps. Quaest Geogr 33:55–63. doi:10.2478/quageo-2014-0029
Kaim D, Kozak J, Kolecka N, Ziółkowska E, Ostafin K, Ostapowicz K, Gimmi U, Munteanu C, Radeloff VC (2016) Broad scale forest cover reconstruction from historical topographic maps. Appl Geogr 67:39–48. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.12.003
Kastner T, Erb K-H, Haberl H (2014) Rapid growth in agricultural trade: effects on global area efficiency and the role of management. Environ Res Lett 9:034015. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034015
Kozak J (2003) Forest cover change in the western Carpathians in the past 180 years. Mt Res Dev 23:369–375
Kozak J, Ostapowicz K, Byterowicz A, Wyzga B (2013a) The Carpathian mountains: challenges for the central and eastern European landmark. The Carpathians: integrating nature and society towards sustainability. Springer, Berlin, pp 1–11
Kozak J, Ostapowicz K, Bytnerowicz A, Wyżga B (eds) (2013b) The Carpathians: integrating nature and society towards sustainability, environmental science and engineering. Springer, Berlin. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-12725-0
Kraemer R, Prishchepov AV, Müller D, Kuemmerle T, Radeloff VC, Dara A, Terekhov A, Frühauf M (2015) Long-term agricultural land-cover change and potential for cropland expansion in the former Virgin Lands area of Kazakhstan. Environ Res Lett 10:054012. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054012
Lambin EF, Geist HJ (eds) (2006) Land-use and land-cover change—local processes and global impacts. Global Cha. ed. Springer, Berlin
Lambin EF, Meyfroidt P (2011) Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108:3465–3472. doi:10.1073/pnas.1100480108
Lerman Z, Csáki C, Feder G (2004) Agriculture in transition: land policies and evolving farm structures in post-Soviet countries. Lexington Books, Lanham
Levers C, Verkerk PJ, Müller D, Verburg PH, Butsic V, Leitão PJ, Lindner M, Kuemmerle T (2014) Drivers of forest harvesting intensity patterns in Europe. For Ecol Manage 315:160–172. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2013.12.030
Lohr S (2010) Sampling: design and analysis, 2nd edn. Brooks/Cole, Boston
MacDonald D, Crabtree J, Wiesinger G, Dax T, Stamou N, Fleury P, Gutierrez Lazpita J, Gibon A (2000) Agricultural abandonment in mountain areas of Europe: environmental consequences and policy response. J Environ Manage 59:47–69. doi:10.1006/jema.1999.0335
MacDonald GK, Bennett EM, Taranu ZE (2012) The influence of time, soil characteristics, and land-use history on soil phosphorus legacies: a global meta-analysis. Glob Change Biol 18:1904–1917. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02653.x
Mackovčin P (2014) Czechoslovak maps in Beneš and Křovák projection between 1921 and 1951. Geod a Kartogr Obz Roc 60(102):193–228
Matteucci SD, Totino M, Arístide P (2016) Ecological and social consequences of the forest transition theory as applied to the Argentinean Great Chaco. Land Use Policy 51:8–17. doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.10.032
Mattingly WB, Orrock JL, Collins CD, Brudvig LA, Damschen EI, Veldman JW, Walker JL (2015) Historical agriculture alters the effects of fire on understory plant beta diversity. Oecologia 177:507–518. doi:10.1007/s00442-014-3144-y
Meyfroidt P (2015) Approaches and terminology for causal analysis in land systems science. J Land Use Sci 4248:1–27. doi:10.1080/1747423X.2015.1117530
Meyfroidt P, Rudel TK, Lambin EF (2010) Forest transitions, trade, and the global displacement of land use. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:20917–20922. doi:10.1073/pnas.1014773107
Mojses M, Petrovič F (2013) Land use changes of historical structures in the agricultural landscape at the local level—Hriňova case study. Ekológia 32:1–12
Montgomery DR (2012) Dirt: the erosion of civilizations. University of California Press, Berkley, Los Angeles, London
Müller D, Leitão PJ, Sikor T (2013) Comparing the determinants of cropland abandonment in Albania and Romania using boosted regression trees. Agric Syst 117:66–77. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2012.12.010
Munroe DK, van Berkel DB, Verburg PH, Olson JL (2013) Alternative trajectories of land abandonment: causes, consequences and research challenges. Curr Opin Environ Sustain. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2013.06.010
Munteanu C, Kuemmerle T, Boltiziar M, Butsic V, Gimmi U, Kaim D, Király G, Konkoly-Gyuró É, Kozak J, Lieskovský J, Mojses M, Müller D, Ostafin K, Ostapowicz K, Shandra O, Štych P, Walker S, Radeloff VC (2014) Forest and agricultural land change in the Carpathian region—A meta-analysis of long-term patterns and drivers of change. Land Use Policy 38:685–697. doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.01.012
Munteanu C, Kuemmerle T, Keuler NS, Müller D, Balazs P, Dobosz M, Griffiths P, Halada L, Kaim D, Király G, Konkoly-Gyuró É, Kozak J, Lieskovský J, Ostafin K, Ostapowicz K, Shandra O, Radeloff VC (2015) Legacies of 19th century land use shape sis ocontemporary forest cover. Glob Environ Change 34:83–94
Munteanu C, Nita M-D, Abrudan IV, Radeloff VC (2016) Historical forest management in Romania is imposing strong legacies on contemporary forests and their management. For Ecol Manage 361:179–193
Munteanu C, Radeloff V, Griffiths P, Halada L, Kaim D, Knorn J, Kozak J, Kuemmerle T, Lieskovsky J, Müller D, Ostapowicz K, Shandra O, Stych P (2017) Land change in the Carpathian Region before and after major institutional changes. In: Gutman G, Radeloff VC (eds) Land use and land cover change in Eastern Europe after the collapse of socialism. Springer, Berlin, pp 57–90
Myyrä S, Pietola K, Yli-Halla M (2007) Exploring long-term land improvements under land tenure insecurity. Agric Syst 92:63–75. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2006.02.009
Nagendra H, Southworth J, Tucker C (2003) Accessibility as a determinant of landscape transformation in western Honduras: linking pattern and process. Landsc Ecol 18:141–158. doi:10.1023/A:1024430026953
Nelson GC (1993) Agricultural policy reform in Eastern Europe: discussion. Am J Agric Econ 75:857. doi:10.2307/1243608
Nelson A (2008) Estimated travel time to the nearest city of 50,000 or more people in year 2000. Global Environment Monitoring Unit-Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Ispra Italy. Available at http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/gam/. Accessed Jan 2014
Pavelková R, Frajer J, Havlíček M, Netopil P, Rozkošný M, David V, Dzuráková M, Šarapatka B (2016) Historical ponds of the Czech Republic: an example of the interpretation of historic maps. J Maps. doi:10.1080/17445647.2016.1203830
Perring MP, De Frenne P, Baeten L, Maes SL, Depauw L, Blondeel H, Carón MM, Verheyen K (2016) Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land-use legacies. Glob Change Biol 22:1361–1371. doi:10.1111/gcb.13146
Plieninger T (2014) Socialist and postsocialist land use legacies determine farm and woodland composition and structure: lessons form Eastern Germany. Eur J For Res 133:597–610
Plieninger T, Schaich H, Kizos T (2010) Land-use legacies in the forest structure of silvopastoral oak woodlands in the Eastern Mediterranean. Reg Environ Change 11:603–615. doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0192-7
Plieninger T, Draux H, Fagerholm N, Bieling C, Bürgi M, Kizos T, Kuemmerle T, Primdahl J, Verburg PH (2016) The driving forces of landscape change in Europe: a systematic review of the evidence. Land Use Policy 57:204–214. doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.04.040
Plue J, Hermy M, Verheyen K, Thuillier P, Saguez R, Decocq G (2008) Persistent changes in forest vegetation and seed bank 1,600 years after human occupation. Landsc Ecol 23:673–688. doi:10.1007/s10980-008-9229-4
Plue J, Dupouey JL, Verheyen K, Hermy M (2009) Forest seed banks along an intensity gradient of ancient agriculture. Seed Sci Res 19:103–114. doi:10.1017/s0960258509306662
Prishchepov AV, Radeloff VC, Baumann M, Kuemmerle T, Müller D (2012) Effects of institutional changes on land use: agricultural land abandonment during the transition from state-command to market-driven economies in post-Soviet Eastern Europe. Environ Res Lett 7:024021. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024021
Ricardo D (1821) On the principles of political economy and taxation, 3rd edn. John Murray, Albemarle Street, London
Schelhaas M-J, Nabuurs G-J, Schuck A (2003) Natural disturbances in the European forests in the 19th and 20th centuries. Glob Change Biol 9:1620–1633. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00684.x
Seto KC, Fragkias M, Güneralp B, Reilly MK (2011) A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion. PLoS ONE 6:e23777. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0023777
Seto KC, Reenberg A, Boone CG, Fragkias M, Haase D, Langanke T, Marcotullio P, Munroe DK, Olah B, Simon D (2012) Urban land teleconnections and sustainability. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109:7687–7692. doi:10.1073/pnas.1117622109
Stobbelaar DJ, Pedroli B (2011) Perspectives on landscape identity: a conceptual challenge. Landsc Res 36:321–339. doi:10.1080/01426397.2011.564860
Štych P, Bičík I, Stonáček V, Bláha J (2012) Change of land use patterns 1827–2005. In: Bičík I, Himiyama Y, Feranec J, Štych P (eds) Land use/cover changes in selected regions in the world, vol VII. IGU-LUCC, Prague, pp 37–41
Timár G (2004) GIS integration of the second military survey sections—a solution valid on the territory of Slovakia and Hungary. Kartogr List 12:119–126
Verburg PH, Eck JRR Van, Nijs TCM De, Dijst MJ, Schot P (2004) Determinants of land-use change patterns in the Netherlands. Environ Plan B Plan Des 31:125–150. doi:10.1068/b307
Vogt P, Soille P, Colombo R (2007) A pan-European River and Catchment Database. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg
Woś B (2005) Zmiany pokrycia terenu w wybranych gminach Beskidów w drugiej połowie XX w. na podstawie analizy zdjęć lotniczych. Teledetekcja Środowiska 35:1–114 (in Polish)
Acknowledgements
We are most grateful to all partners and student collaborators who helped digitize the historic maps. We thank three reviewers for their constructive feedback and for helping us improve the manuscript. We gratefully acknowledge support by the Land-Cover and Land-Use Change Program of the National Aeronautic Space Administration (NASA), the NASA Earth System Science Fellowship Program (NESSF), the European Commission (Projects No. 265104 VOLANTE and 603447 HERCULES), the Einstein Foundation, Berlin (Germany), the Fulbright Scholar Program, the VEGA Grant Agency (Project No. 2/0171/16) and by Projects No. 1/0934/17 and 2/0117/13.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Munteanu, C., Kuemmerle, T., Boltiziar, M. et al. Nineteenth-century land-use legacies affect contemporary land abandonment in the Carpathians. Reg Environ Change 17, 2209–2222 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1097-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1097-x