Summary
PREVIEW is an European Commission FP6 Integrated Project which aims at developing, on an European level, new geo-information services for natural and industrial risk management. The work package WP4340 focuses on forecast of Mediterranean flash floods. Phase 1 was devoted to the assessment of the usefulness of kilometric scale atmospheric model forecast for hydrological applications and to the development of hydro-meteorological coupled systems based on high-resolution atmospheric models and hydrological models able to reproduce the hydrological behaviour of Mediterranean catchments. Four high-resolution models at 2–3 km resolution have been run on five flash-flood cases over the French Cévennes-Vivarais and Italian Piedmont regions; models are MM5 (by NOA), COSMO-2 (by MeteoSwiss), MESO-NH (by Météo-France) and COSMO-LAMI (by Arpa Piemonte). To investigate the benefit of coupling atmospheric and hydrological models, the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) have been verified against observations using both classical and categorical statistical scores, while the sensitivity of the QPF to the model initial conditions has been also examined. In addition, the various hourly precipitation forecasts were supplied as input to hydrological models to evaluate through the simulated discharges the value of high resolution forecasts for hydrological forecast purposes. Clearly the hydrological verification conclusions differ from the QPF verification ones and show the usefulness of developing such hydrological verification as the one performed here.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
RA Anthès (1983) ArticleTitleRegional models of the atmosphere in middle latitudes Mon Wea Rev 111 1306–1330 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<1306:RMOTAI>2.0.CO;2
Bougeault P (2003) The WGNE survey of verification methods for numerical prediction of weather elements and severe weather events. Technical report, WMO
K Beven MJ Kirkby (1979) ArticleTitleA physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology Hydrol Sci Bull 24 43–69 Occurrence Handle10.1080/02626667909491834
K Chancibault S Anquetin V Ducrocq G-M Saulnier (2006) ArticleTitleHydrological evaluation of high resolution precipitation forecasts of the Gard flash-flood event (8–9 September 2002) Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 132 1091–1117 Occurrence Handle10.1256/qj.04.164
Doms G, Schâttler U (1999) The non-hydrostatic limited-area model LM (Lokal-Model) of the DWD. Deutscher Wetterdienst, Tech. Rep., 180 pp [Available from Deutscher Wetterdienst, 63004 Offenbach, Germany]
V Ducrocq D Ricard JP Lafore F Orain (2002a) ArticleTitleStorm-scale numerical rainfall prediction for five precipitating events over France: on the importance of the initial humidity field Wea Forecast 17 1236–1256 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<1236:SSNRPF>2.0.CO;2
J Dudhia (1993) ArticleTitleA non-hydrostatic version of the Penn State/NCAR nesoscale model: validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front Mon Wea Rev 121 1493–1513 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1493:ANVOTP>2.0.CO;2
C Fischer T Montmerle L Berre L Auger S Stefanescu (2005) ArticleTitleAn overview of the variational assimilation in the ALADIN/France numerical weather prediction system Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 131 3477–3492 Occurrence Handle10.1256/qj.05.115
JP Lafore J Stein N Asencio P Bougeault V Ducrocq J Duron C Fisher P Hereil P Mascart V Masson JP Pinty JL Redelsperger E Richard J Vila-Guerau de Arellano (1998) ArticleTitleThe Meso-NH Atmospheric simulation system. Part I: Adiabatic formulation and control simulations Ann Geophys 16 90–109 Occurrence Handle10.1007/s00585-997-0090-6
K Lagouvardos V Kotroni (2005) ArticleTitleImprovement of high resolution weather forecasts through humidity adjustment, based on satellite data Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 131 2695–2712 Occurrence Handle10.1256/qj.04.112
M Le Lay GM Saulnier (2007a) ArticleTitleExploring the signature of spatial variabilities in flash flood events: Case of the 8–9 September 2002 Cévennes-vivarais catastrophic event Geophys Res Lett 34 L13401 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2007GL029746
Le Lay M, Saulnier GM (2007b) Rainfall volume, intensities or localization influences on flash-flood generation in the Cévennes-Vivarais region (France). Geophys Res Lett (submitted)
Mancini M (1990) Modelling catchments hydrologic response: effects of the spatial variability and the scale of representation of the soil absorption phenomenom. PhD thesis (in Italian), Politecnico di Milano, Milan, 156 pp
N Montaldo M Mancini R Rosso (2004) ArticleTitleFlood hydrograph attenuation induced by a reservoir system: analysis with a distributed rainfall-runoff model Hydrol Process 18 IssueID3 545–563 Occurrence Handle10.1002/hyp.1337
JE Nash JV Sutcliffe (1970) ArticleTitleRiver flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part I: A discussion of principles J Hydrol 10 282–290 Occurrence Handle10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6
J Noilhan S Planton (1989) ArticleTitleA simple parametrization of land surface processes for meteorological models Mon Wea Rev 117 536–549 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<0536:ASPOLS>2.0.CO;2
GM Saulnier R Datin (2004) ArticleTitleAnalytical solving of a bias in the TOPMODEL framework water balance Hydrol Process 18 IssueID7 1195–1218 Occurrence Handle10.1002/hyp.1346
C Schraff (1997) ArticleTitleMesoscale data assimilation and prediction of low stratus in the Alpine region Meteorol Atmos Phys 64 21–50 Occurrence Handle10.1007/BF01044128
SE Theis A Hense U Damrath (2005) ArticleTitleProbabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model: a pragmatic approach Meteorol Appl 12 IssueID3 257–268 Occurrence Handle10.1017/S1350482705001763
H Wernli M Paulat M Hagen C Frei (2008) ArticleTitleSAL – a novel quality measure for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts Mon Wea Rev 136 4470–4487 Occurrence Handle10.1175/2008MWR2415.1
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Correspondence: Béatrice Vincendon, GMME/MICADO, GAME/CNRM, Météo-France/CNRS, 42 av. G. Coriolis, Toulouse Cedex 31057, France
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Vincendon, B., Ducrocq, V., Dierer, S. et al. Flash flood forecasting within the PREVIEW project: value of high-resolution hydrometeorological coupled forecast. Meteorol Atmos Phys 103, 115–125 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-008-0315-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-008-0315-6